The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has adjusted its 2026 home sales prediction downward, as recent data reveals a slight increase in the number of homes sold in June compared to the previous month. Rising oil prices have fueled inflation, leading to speculation about potential interest rate hikes by the Bank of Canada. This has caused bond yields to rise, resulting in an earlier surge in fixed mortgage rates this year. While these pressures have somewhat alleviated, CREA notes that they continued to impact the housing market in recent months, along with a faster-than-anticipated decline in Canada’s population.
The national sales forecast for 2026 has been slightly lowered by CREA due to a sluggish first half of the year and a delayed commencement of the anticipated housing market recovery. Initially projecting a modest increase in home sales for 2026, CREA now anticipates a 1.4% decline compared to 2025, marking a further revision from the association’s earlier downgrade in April.
June data indicates a 0.5% uptick in national home sales compared to the previous month, with a 0.9% increase in activity from June 2025. Senior economist Shaun Cathcart from CREA mentioned that this growth builds on positive momentum from May, describing the current market as slowly stabilizing.
The MLS home price index reported a benchmark price of $657,700 for homes in the previous month. Although prices in Ontario, British Columbia, and Alberta remained lower, Cathcart highlighted that the declines are diminishing, suggesting a trend towards price stabilization nationwide.
Cathcart commented that the real estate market in Ontario and British Columbia is expected to show slight improvements by year-end, while regions like the Prairies and Quebec are witnessing a slowdown. With prices steadying and interest rates remaining relatively unchanged in recent months, Cathcart believes these conditions may motivate potential buyers to enter the market.
