In the early hours of Wednesday, various telescopes worldwide will attempt to capture a rare event: an aging rocket crashing into the illuminated side of the moon. The rocket in question is the second stage of a SpaceX Falcon 9 that transported two lunar landers – Firefly Blue Ghost-1 from the U.S. and ispace Hakuto-R Resilience from Japan – during its launch in January 2025.
Bill Gray, an independent astronomer and tracking software writer, has been monitoring the rocket’s trajectory since its launch and predicted a close encounter with the moon on August 5, 2026. Calculating the exact orbital data was challenging due to the slight gravitational influence of the sun on objects in space, besides the well-understood gravitational forces of the moon and Earth. Eventually, Gray determined that the rocket was on a direct collision course with the moon.
The impact is expected to occur on the sunlit side of the moon near its edge. This event is not unprecedented, as human-made objects like Apollo upper stages have previously impacted the lunar surface intentionally, for scientific purposes or to remove them from orbit. Notable examples include NASA’s Lunar Crater Observation and Sensing Satellite and ESA’s SMART-1 spacecraft, the latter leaving a significant impact crater on the moon’s surface.
Astronomers are urging large observatories and serious amateur stargazers to observe the upcoming impact, scheduled for August 5 at 2:34:32.9 a.m. ET. The best viewing opportunities will be in central and eastern Canada, the U.S., parts of the Caribbean, and South America due to the moon’s favorable position above the horizon during the event.
Moving at approximately 2.43 kilometers per second, the rocket is expected to release a plume of debris into space, estimated to weigh over one million kilograms. Observations of this debris ejection are crucial for research purposes. While capturing the impact flash might be challenging due to its brief duration and location on the sunlit side of the moon, observing the debris plume is anticipated to be more feasible.
Astronomers are keen to gather valuable data from this impact event, considering the increasing human presence on the moon. Understanding the risks posed by artificial impacts like this one is essential for future lunar missions. Additionally, monitoring such events helps assess potential hazards like debris falling back to the lunar surface, which could pose risks to habitats or astronauts.
As the August 5 date approaches, Gray continues to refine his calculations and track other space objects, emphasizing the importance of monitoring potential impacts for future space exploration endeavors.
