Wealthsimple, a Toronto-based online financial services company, is set to introduce prediction markets to Canadian retail investors this summer. The company is currently beta testing a new app called Wealthsimple Predict, which will provide clients with access to event contracts through the U.S. prediction market Kalshi.
Canadian regulators have granted limited approval for prediction-market trading related to economic indicators, financial markets, and climate trends, excluding sports, elections, or pop culture. According to Brett Huneycutt, co-founder and chief product officer of Wealthsimple, prediction markets are rapidly expanding in the global financial markets.
Operating akin to financial exchanges, prediction markets enable users to place bets on event contracts, which are simple yes-or-no or higher-or-lower wagers on the outcomes of real-world events. Canadians previously had restricted access to prediction markets, as regulators had not approved them for widespread retail trading, leading some Canadians to utilize VPN services to access these platforms.
Wealthsimple aims to educate users on the essential risks associated with such trades, highlighting the potential for losing the entire position value. Kalshi and Polymarket, the primary players in the prediction market sector, have witnessed significant growth over the past two years.
In 2024, bets placed on the top five prediction markets were estimated to reach about $100 million US. As of April 2026, Kalshi and Polymarket collectively had a monthly global trading volume of around $24 billion, as reported by a Pew Research Center analysis.
Kalshi’s growth has been bolstered by sports betting, which accounts for approximately 90% of the fees collected on trades. The platform has also garnered attention through integration into news coverage with major media outlets like CNN. Meanwhile, Polymarket’s prominence has been elevated through partnerships to feature odds and predictions during events like the Golden Globes, as well as coverage by 60 Minutes on CBS News.
Aside from sports, popular markets on Kalshi and Polymarket encompass various areas such as pop culture, politics, international conflict, cryptocurrency, scientific and technological advancements, economic indicators, financial markets, and climate. However, Wealthsimple’s users will have access only to prediction markets approved for economic indicators, financial markets, and climate, offering nearly 4,000 event contracts on Kalshi’s platform upon the app’s launch.
Andrew Kim, a psychology professor and gambling expert at Toronto Metropolitan University, believes that the exclusion of sports and pop culture from approved prediction markets in Canada is beneficial, as it may deter many gamblers from trading on these markets.
Although prediction markets can display the “wisdom of the crowd” with sufficient investor participation, concerns persist regarding vulnerabilities to insider trading. Notably, there have been instances of suspicious trades on prediction markets, including a case involving a U.S. special forces soldier accused of using classified information about a military mission to capture Nicolás Maduro and profiting from a bet on Polymarket.
